iPhone: Doomed to Fail or Destined for Greatness?

In a move that ended years of speculation and anticipates years of music phone competition for its iPod franchise, Apple unveiled the iPhone in January. The reinvention of the phone, as Apple has modestly characterized it, combines a widescreen iPod, cell phone, and mobile Internet device--sounds like a "trio" of sorts.
 
The iPhone looks different from other smart phones; there is no hard QWERTY keyboard and no stylus well; it's designed to work completely with your fingers. It also includes the largest, highest-resolution screen and one of the slimmest profiles available, and its metallic frame and black face exude the stylish design that is close to the heart of Apple and far from the minds of function-frenzied smart phone designers.
 
In addition to the iPhone's obvious innovations, there is far more under the hood, including a ported version of OS X designed to run "desktop-strength" applications, such as Apple's Safari browser. There are also sensors that turn the screen off when you put it to your ear and that rotate the screen with engaging animations as you move from landscape to portrait mode. Last but not least is the patented multi-touch technology that allows for new gesture-based control and more accurate pointing recognition.
 
Other features include Bluetooth and Wi-Fi, a two-megapixel camera with best-in-class photo management, random-access voicemail and integration, contact and calendar synchronization, Google Maps, Yahoo Mail, and widgets. All of this will cost you $499 for a 4GB version and $599 for an 8GB version, available exclusively through a two-year Cingular contract. Furthermore, because the iPhone will be available exclusively through Apple and Cingular-owned stores, it is unlikely to see the rapid price declines characteristic of other smart phones.
 
But if you think that's great news for the nation's largest cellular carrier, hold the phone. The iPhone cuts out Cingular from many of the revenue streams associated with its advanced handsets. There's no high-speed data, no GPS capability, and no Java-based applets; Apple has noted that all future iPhone functionality will come from Apple. Cingular doesn't even get a cut of music downloads, which will remain through iTunes. And Apple's devotion to design discipline curtails the consumer as well. Like the iPod, the iPhone's battery isn't replaceable; its memory isn't expandable; and purchased tracks can come only from iTunes.
 
But the most surprising thing about the iPhone, which is at least partially a cross between a Mac and an iPod, is that Apple has taken the latter's approach to application expandability, that is, practically none. Yes, Apple has cut off third-party support for one of the best-supported operating systems in the world. Is its thinking different, or just crazy?
 
In either case, there's justification. The experience of installing many client applications on Windows Mobile or Palm OS devices is miserable. In general, you have to know which Web sites to go to, often pay for them without benefit of a trial, and synchronize them to your phone, PDA-style. These programs are also often expensive, especially for their functionality. Useful utilities can easily cost more than $20, with at least one universal instant messaging program costing nearly $40. If you're unsatisfied, you may need to plead with a one-man shop for a refund. User interfaces are often confusing or inconsistent, and sometimes the programs simply don't work with the version of the operating system you have.
 
Still, there's an easy fix to this broken usage model. The iTunes store could expand from music, video, and games to sell iPhone applications that include upgrades and add-ons for its integrated applications and new ones. An obvious target is instant messaging. While the iPhone offers an iChat-like interface to SMS, it does not offer compatibility with AOL Instant Messenger as the Mac-based messenger does. Its iPhone content partners at Yahoo and Google would be eager to provide such compatibility with their IM clients as well.
 
Whereas the iPod was an appliance, the iPhone has the potential to be much more. Apple could have played it safe and made a simpler "iPod-phone." Instead, it created a killer platform for mobile applications. What a paradox it is to have the most powerful operating system in a cell phone be off-limits to a passionate developer base. Apple may have no interest in providing every solution to everyone, yet by certifying and selling third-party iPhone applications, it can enable its customers to tailor their handsets-adding a new meaning to the "I" in iPhone.